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Linares 1999
Tournament Preview
by GM Alexander Khalifman
This general preview will be followed by single round previews, so I'll write on some specific points a bit later. Just now there are some common words about forthcoming event.
Question No1(and only).
Who will win it?It is very probable that Kasparov will steal the show again. As Hoogovens showed us he's in a very good shape and the gap in opening preparation between him and the rest players is still increasing. In the tournament like Linares if he'll manage to score sometimes without real struggle ( just from the FRITZ & Dokhoian variations ) it may decide the whole event. However, Linares has much more stable players' field than Hoogovens did and nobody seems to be ready giving a point just for some opening lecture like it used to happen. So if he'll be stuck in the opening without any massive gains (like in 1998) his task will be much harder. Objectively the first scenario seems to be closer to reality - so Kasparov's chances - 40%.
As for Anand - Vishy's play in 1998 and Hoogovens shows that he's now the world's best player. Well it might be personal opinion but I think he just plays chess better than anybody else. However, his chances are slightly inferior comparing to Gazza's because of:
So let's give him fair 30%.
Vladimir Kramnik in my opinion is now the only person to make comments whether Vishy is the best or not. Great understanding of chess, good nerves, opening knowledge based mostly on his own analytical research which can be, however, compared with result of Kasparov's team work - what else does one need to be the best? However, the last Vladimir's results show that he's acting in some very special overrelaxed mode what can be hardly the best way to win the tournament like this. His physical condition is also spoiling his chances sometimes. Anyway Kramnik is the great player. 15% to him.
Vassily Ivanchuk has won 3 Linares superGM events recently. I don't even want to repeat what for a talent the guy has. I wouldn't also repeat the story about Vassily's unstableness and start some discussion on "Today's Luzhin". The combination of abovementioned factors makes Vassily dangerous in every single game but his chances in a long run don't deserve more than 5%.
Peter Svidler continues his steady run to the very top. He achieved some good results in 1998 and feels himself quite comfortable in 2700+ community. However, in such a tournament he will be facing certain difficulties as some of his opening systems are better suited for "having fun" (P.Svidler) than for the games with Kasparov or Kramnik. His chances for the first are in his bright tactical talent and creativity. Well, 5% to Peter, I wish it would be more.
The rest three players seem to be the underdogs of this super-event. However, they are all strong grandmasters whose play can be brilliant.
I'd give 3% for the top prize to Peter Leko first of all because he's only 19 and has prepared to Linares from October,1998 when he played successfully in Tilburg (clear second after Anand).
Topalov and Adams are good enough to fight for the top place in any other tournament but in Linares their chances are slim - 1% each.
My general conclusion is that this strong field will hardly bring some surprising final results.
Missing Morozevich, aren't you?
Frankly speaking, it's already good time for Round 1 Preview. Stay online.